NOVEMBER 2024 Image by Gerd Altmann/geralt 

It was a long night, as billions like us, across the continent followed the 2024 U.S. presidential election results.

While pollsters were busy analysing the election results and trends, there were other analysts and strategists, pondering how this election might reshape our world.

To many it was a surprise in the end?  The race which was called as ‘close’ looked one sided.

So, Trump is Back!

Yes, he is !

Trump’s return signals the dawn of a new world order.

• ट्रम्प की ऐतिहासिक वापसी 

But before we dive into the implications, let’s pause to note an interesting pattern: just as in India, the exit polls in the U.S. missed the mark once again.

Predictably, the media has taken a credibility hit. And it’s worth mentioning that the U.S. is, in many ways, the birthplace of what we in India refer to as “Godi media.”

Like eager students in a classroom, India has picked up some of the U.S.'s less desirable media practices faster than the beneficial ones.

With upcoming state elections in India, exit polls will soon dominate discussions, influencing markets, news, and narratives.

• Recycling American Presidency: Crisis in Whitehouse 

But here’s a valuable takeaway from the U.S. election: it’s wise not to accept exit polls at face value.

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Trump’s return signals the dawn of a new world order.

Returning to the U.S., Donald Trump is once again president, marking only the second time in over 250 years that a former president has reclaimed office.

Donald Trump’s return comes at a time of global polarization, and his bold, often unconventional foreign policies will now face new and urgent challenges, particularly concerning the two wars. 

These wars are currently affecting global peace and stability.

So, let’s focus on Trump’s assertive stance on NATO, Ukraine, and Israel, and what these may mean for America’s role on the world stage.

Trump’s promise to swiftly end the Ukraine conflict through direct negotiations with Russia, paired with his unwavering support for Israel amid the escalating Gaza crisis, signals a departure from multilateral diplomacy toward a transactional, “America-first” approach. 

This shift is likely to test traditional U.S. alliances, including the longstanding bond with Israel, and could have far-reaching effects on global stability.

The spectre of a third world war looms as America’s leverage to mediate and enforce peace appears to be diminishing under pressure from both internal politics and an increasingly “nodal” global landscape. 

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Donald Trump’s return comes at a time of global polarization...

By "nodal" one means, nations like China, India, Japan, and others are asserting themselves regionally, creating a world where influence is no longer centralized.

 In this environment, America’s power to broker peace is under significant strain.

If you see, today’s conflicts are resistant to resolution, as evidenced by a growing reluctance among leaders to compromise.

We’re witnessing a web of interlocking regional and global rivalries, with the U.S. and other traditional powers increasingly challenged by 

emerging players like India, whose independent stances on issues like the Israel-Gaza conflict and the Russia-Ukraine war signal a shift in global dynamics. 

• ट्रम्प की ऐतिहासिक वापसी 

Nations are asserting their interests in often opposing directions, like North Korea sending troops to Russia, further complicating the global stage.

Turkey is trading highly sophisticated S-400 missiles with Russia while being a crucial NATO partner.

Consider Ukraine: Russia’s invasion has not only galvanized Western support for Kyiv but has also increased European defence spending.

Meanwhile, U.S. actions in regions like Sudan go largely unnoticed, as conflicts there barely register in global conversations or high-level summits like the G7 and G20.

These examples highlight a new reality—one where regional interests often overshadow humanitarian concerns, contrasting sharply with the roles the U.S. and NATO traditionally play.

A major factor in this shift is the perceived erosion of America’s moral authority.

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The spectre of a third world war looms as America’s leverage to mediate and enforce peace...

Historically, the U.S. has positioned itself as a defender of democracy and human rights. 

There was a proclamation that west wants to see a democratic government in Iraq after Saddam Hussein or a functioning democracy in Afghanistan. Both these attempts have been a failure.

Instead, this image of US as global democracy proponent is increasingly fractured.

In fact, one of the biggest issues for American voters in this election was the state of democracy itself.

Around 35% of voters prioritized defending democracy, underscoring a need for America to “walk the talk” and address its own issues.

A prominent point of criticism is the perceived double standard in U.S. foreign policy. While America condemns Russia’s aggression in 

Ukraine, its stance on Israel’s actions in Gaza reveals an inconsistency that doesn’t go unnoticed, especially as atrocities continue in countries like Sudan, Yemen, and Lebanon. 

These crises, however, receive minimal attention in Washington.

As Trump returns to power, this perceived inconsistency could shape U.S. foreign policy in profound ways.

•  ट्रम्प की ऐतिहासिक वापसी 

Trump’s approach, bold and deeply personal, could see a shift away from traditional alliances. He calls himself a “peacemaker” but hints that Washington’s international cooperation will be transactional. 

His strong support for Israel’s security policy, exemplified by his message to Netanyahu — “do what you have to do” — could signal a more permissive U.S. stance on Israeli actions in the region. 

Additionally, Trump’s desire to expand the Abraham Accords, while sidelining Palestinian concerns, may exacerbate tensions in the Middle East.

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... Image of US as global democracy proponent is increasingly fractured

In the Israel-Gaza conflict, Trump’s position remains ambiguous.

Although he claims he wants to resolve the crisis, his decision during his first term to move the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem—endorsing 

Israel’s claim to the city—contradicted Palestinian aspirations, as they view East Jerusalem as the capital of their future state.

• ट्रम्प की ऐतिहासिक वापसी 

Trump’s administration also stopped labelling Israeli settlements in the West Bank as “illegal,” effectively endorsing Israeli expansionism. This inconsistency in policy is not limited to the Middle East; it extends to NATO as well. 

Trump’s preference for a transactional, business-like foreign policy approach toward NATO could undermine the alliance’s stability.

Taken together, Trump’s foreign policy stances present a complex landscape.

While he advocates for negotiation in Ukraine and North Korea, his stance on the Middle East suggests a confrontational approach, particularly toward Iran and the Palestinian territories.

As the U.S. navigates a multipolar world filled with regional powers, Trump’s administration will face the challenge of balancing these various tensions.

Whether Trump’s policies will stabilize or intensify these conflicts remains uncertain. One thing is clear, however: he will need to act as both peacemaker and pacifist.

This role is essential in the current climate, though it will undoubtedly be complex and consequential. 

The stakes are high.