Afghanistan Withdrawal

For the last 70 years, US foreign policy has been struggling with an exit strategy, from the countries they once intervened, (invaded). The realistic picture is grave, if we take a holistic outlook.

Starting from the Korean War exit (1950-53), to the current Afghanistan war (2001-21), US foreign policy and military strategy, have faltered severely at the time of withdrawal. 

For example, Somalia (1993-95) is another ongoing crisis, due to the US pull-out. The country and the region left behind, have been in humanistic chaos for decades, and the 21st-century case is Iraq. 

• अफ़ग़ानिस्तान - अमेरिका, नाटो वापसी - तबाही को आमंत्रण 

It is reeling under partisan violence, and a divided community. Poor strategy in Iraq, had led to the creation of ISIS. Their ambitions and brutality are all for the world to see. There is an ocean full of text, and visuals available to authenticate the situation there.

Afghanistan, and Iraq go hand in hand. Together, they were US military targets, to avenge September 11 twin tower attacks, and bring peace to the region, and the world. Neither happened, and the world is a more dangerous place ever since.

Afghanistan is in focus, as the US is desperate to pull out.

It has been more than 20 years, and the most powerful allies are still struggling, in Afghanistan. The very idea that the US, and NATO allies will bring peace, and stability in the region has scored zero. 

• Sacrificed for Nothing in Afghanistan 

• Should INDIA Keep Out of Afghanistan? 

• Terror Wins in Afghanistan? 

On the contrary, the situation in Afghanistan is, deteriorating further. It has left the country divided by regional and sectarian lines. 

There is infighting, and violence is seen every day, on the street. The population is living under threat to their lives, and a civil war is at the doorstep.

The situation of Vietnam is playing all over again. When the US left South Vietnam, after the desperate Paris Peace accord, a civil war ensued there.

 North Vietnam made a military incursion, to unify the nation, resulting in mass casualty, due to retribution. 

Those population, who supported the US were sent to re-education camps, were often tortured.

 The pro-US parties, and individuals were left cheated and deserted.

• अफ़ग़ानिस्तान - अमेरिका, नाटो वापसी - तबाही को आमंत्रण 

After the exit of the US from Iraq, it became the breeding ground, for the creation of ISIS. The entire region, starting from Turkey in the North, encompassing Iraq, and a large part of Syria, are still affected by the continued threat, from ISIS.

Afghanistan is experiencing the same Vietnam, and Iraq effect. At least for now, things are building up to that situation.

The Taliban are the party that will decide the peace, and stability in the region. After all, the Taliban, was running the government, militarily toppled in 2001.

 All this while, the US has been fighting the same Taliban, with the help of local Afghans. While all the effort to rebuild the Afghan army, and Afghan police was put in place by the US, it has failed to show any results. 

After September 2021, once the US pulls-out, on its own, these Afghan institutions will not survive the pressure of the Taliban. 

The consequence is going to be catastrophic, for the thousands of US supporting Afghan functionaries in Afghanistan.

US government does understand the situation, that sizeable Afghan population is treated as a traitor, hence have started the processing of their visa, under International Refugee Assistance Project (IRAP), as Special Immigrant Visas. 

There are approximately, 18,000 Afghan interpreters, who need protection via safe immigration.

 The scale is so significant for the rehabilitation of Afghans in the US, that their visa program cannot cope. At least, that is what it looks like for now.

There are still more than 10,000 applications pending, for Afghan families. Considering four in a family, all together, the number of visas to be processed, comes to an astounding figure of 70,000. 

The process of rehabilitation, which includes the evacuation of Afghans, out of the country, must conclude before September 11. 

It is the time, when the US and its NATO allies withdraw their operations, entirely from Afghanistan. It is a mammoth humanitarian task, which the US and allies must fulfill. 

Even after this exercise, the residual population, who once supported the US forces will be at risk, and their fate is unknown. For now, trusting the Taliban is the only option remaining, while negotiation goes on.

Apart from the humanitarian crisis, that Afghanistan will face, there is a risk of civil war, with the involvement of neighbouring regional players. 

• अफ़ग़ानिस्तान - अमेरिका, नाटो वापसी - तबाही को आमंत्रण 

At least 14 domestic groups, and tribes in Afghanistan, are eyeing the country, and ready to capture as much pie as they can. Following are the groups and tribes, though this is not an exhaustive list:

• Afghanistan Taliban – They are the previous government, toppled by military intervention of NATO, in 2001.

• al-Qaeda – Responsible for September 11, attack in the US.

• IMU – Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan

• Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami

• HI-Gulbuddin – Hizb-i-Islami Gulbuddin

• HI-Khalis – Hezb-e Islami

• Haqqani network

• Lashkar-e-Taiba

• Lashkar-e-Islam

• Abdullah Azzam Shaheed Brigade

• JeM – Jaish-e-Mohammed

• ETIM - East Turkestan Islamic Movement

• TTP – Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan

• IEW - Islamic Emirate of Waziristan

• Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan

• TNSM – Tehreek-e-Nafaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi

• IJU – Islamic Jihad Union

• Lashkar-e-Jhangvi

• Harkat-ul-Mujahideen

• Mullah Dadullah Front

Few of them have been declared terrorist organization, including Al-Qaeda and Taliban, who will have a place in NATO free Afghanistan, to regroup and rejuvenate. 

With all of them let loose, we will find that global terrorism, and world safety is at severe risk.

Pakistan, Iran and India have immediate stakes in the country. China will not be left far behind in the risk, as, there is already growing support in the Islamic world, for the Uighur Muslim’s treatment, in China. 

 Similarly, each of these neighbours, has a history with Afghanistan, in a complex mix of political, cultural, and geographical necessities. 

Also, there are conflicting interests, that come into play, between India and Pakistan. Each country, is trying to find a foothold, and significant role in Afghanistan’s post-NATO status.

US and allies, cannot leave the country unattended. Sooner it will be a breeding ground, against the west, as the latest Afghani generations have only seen war. 

Recruiting to revenge, will be  easy, of these terrorist groups. There is voluminous evidence, available to smoothly turn the entire population, against the west.

On the contrary, the US must cease immediately its call to exit. It should rather, keep its presence there for another 20 years, in a non-combat role. 

This time, solely to bring leadership, and democracy to the country. Their part, this time has to change to more of peacekeeping, and nation-building.

 Not to seem like colonizing but indeed, stabilizing presence. Their participation is of utmost importance, as they are party to the mess, and must fix it too. Also, in long run, it will be in their interest.

• अफ़ग़ानिस्तान - अमेरिका, नाटो वापसी - तबाही को आमंत्रण 

Biden administration, will be committing a blunder of a lifetime, if they pull out. The effects of withdrawal, may not be visible immediately, but certainly, will be felt within this administration’s term.

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