Legitimacy of Taliban: Stalemate Again
Embedded Files
28 DECEMBER 2023
The question of the Taliban’s legitimacy as the government of Afghanistan, is a multifaceted issue rife with historical context, evolving political realities, and diverse perspectives.
Before the Taliban’s emergence in the 1990s, Afghanistan’s political landscape was marked by instability and conflict.
The Soviet-Afghan War (1979-1989) and subsequent civil war left the country fractured and yearning for order.
In this context, the Taliban, promising a restoration of peace and security through a strict interpretation of Islamic law, gained traction.
Their swift military victories and perceived effectiveness during the early days in curbing widespread lawlessness garnered them a degree of acceptance among war-weary Afghans.
During the Taliban’s first regime in the 1990s, they received formal recognition from Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
However, this recognition was revoked following the US-led intervention in 2001.
Legitimacy
As of December 2023, the Taliban government in Afghanistan faces no formal recognition from any nation-state.
The question of international recognition further complicates the Taliban’s claim to legitimacy.
Following their takeover in August 2021, no nation has formally recognized the Taliban as the legitimate government of Afghanistan.
The lack of recognition stems from concerns about the Taliban’s human rights record, particularly regarding women’s rights and freedom of expression.
Additionally, the international community has expressed scepticism about the Taliban’s commitment to inclusivity and its ability to prevent Afghanistan from becoming a haven for terrorist groups.
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The lack of recognition stems from concerns about the Taliban’s human rights record, particularly regarding women’s rights and freedom of expression.
While formal recognition remains elusive, some countries, including China and Russia, have engaged with the Taliban government diplomatically.
This engagement prioritizes regional security and economic cooperation but does not constitute endorsement or recognition.
The question of whether the Taliban should be allowed to represent Afghanistan in the United Nations General Assembly is a complex and sensitive issue.
Strong arguments exist on both sides, and any decision has potential consequences.
Arguments for Granting Representation
Sovereignty and Representation: Every sovereign nation has the right to representation in the UN, and denying this right to the Taliban could undermine the universality principle underpinning the organization.
Recognizing the Taliban would facilitate communication and engagement, potentially influencing their behaviour and promoting positive change within Afghanistan.
· Stability: Granting representation could incentivize the Taliban to comply with international norms and standards, potentially making them more accountable and open to reform.
It could contribute to greater stability and security within Afghanistan, reducing the risk of internal conflict and regional instability.
· Humanitarian Aid: Engaging with the Taliban could be crucial for ensuring the delivery of humanitarian aid and assistance to the Afghan people, many of whom face dire humanitarian challenges.
Recognizing the Taliban as the official representative could open channels for cooperation and coordination on humanitarian efforts.
The Taliban’s ability to consolidate their rule and achieve legitimacy hinges on their ability to address various critical challenges.
Economic hardship, a humanitarian crisis, and continued insurgency all pose significant threats to their stability.
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...Engaging with the Taliban could be crucial for ensuring the delivery of humanitarian aid and assistance to the Afghan people
Additionally, navigating complex relationships with neighbouring countries and maintaining international goodwill is crucial for garnering broader recognition and unlocking much-needed development assistance.
Arguments against Granting Representation
Human Rights Concerns
The Taliban’s past and ongoing record on human rights, particularly regarding women’s rights and freedom of expression, raises serious concerns that their representation could legitimize and embolden such practices.
Granting them a platform at the UN could be seen as condoning their actions and undermining the organization’s core values.
Girls are largely barred from attending secondary school and above, hindering their educational opportunities and limiting their prospects.
Over 1 million girls remain excluded from secondary education, a devastating setback for a country where female literacy rates had previously risen to around 30%.
This denial of education undermines their personal development and deprives Afghanistan of the potential contributions of future doctors, engineers, teachers, and leaders.
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Over 1 million girls remain excluded from secondary education...
Women face travel restrictions, often requiring a male escort, significantly curtailing their independence. Restrictions on women’s travel have negatively impacted their health and well-being.
The World Health Organization reports a 50% decrease in women seeking healthcare services, indicating a concerning trend of untreated illnesses and delayed health interventions.
Mandatory wearing head coverings and loose clothing restricts women’s freedom of expression and choice. Opportunities for women in the public sphere are severely limited, pushing them out of many professions.
Women’s employment in the public sector has plummeted by over 80%, a stark reversal of progress made in recent years.
This loss of jobs in government, healthcare, and education represents a significant brain drain and a missed opportunity for utilizing the skills and talents of Afghan women.
Reports of domestic violence and forced marriages have risen, highlighting the vulnerability of women and girls.
This practice not only violates the fundamental rights of girls and women but also serves as a tool of control and subjugation, further entrenching gender inequality.
Domestic violence has increased by 28%, painting a grim picture of escalating violence within homes.
This rise is likely due to factors such as increased stress, economic hardship, and the erosion of support systems for women facing abuse.
Lack of Inclusivity
The Taliban’s government is not currently seen as inclusive, with limited representation of ethnic and religious minorities.
It raises concerns that their representation would not reflect the voices and interests of all Afghans, potentially worsening existing divisions and conflicts within the country.
Within Afghanistan itself, the Taliban’s legitimacy is far from universally accepted.
While some segments of the population, particularly in rural areas, may appreciate their focus on security and traditional values, others, especially urban Afghans and minority groups, harbour deep reservations.
Religious minorities like Hazaras, Shias, and Christians face discrimination and threats, with reports of targeted killings and harassment.
Ethnic minorities like Nuristani, Uzbeks, Tajiks, Hindus, Sikhs and others may experience marginalization and exclusion from power structures.
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Within Afghanistan itself, the Taliban’s legitimacy is far from universally accepted
The Taliban’s crackdown on dissent, restrictions on women’s education and employment, and suppression of religious minorities have fuelled internal opposition and instability.
Support for Terrorism
The Taliban’s historical ties to terrorist groups and their potential harbouring of such groups in the future is a significant concern.
Recognizing them could send a message of tolerance towards terrorism and undermine international efforts to combat it.
Considering that the Taliban, once a designated terror group, is now a government, providing a definitive list of designated terror groups
operating from Afghanistan is challenging due to the complexities surrounding such designations and the dynamic nature of the situation.
The UN Security Council, the US, and other countries as a terrorist organization designate Islamic State Khorasan Province (IS-KP). Al-Qaeda is the international terrorist organization behind the 9/11 attacks and other atrocities.
Though their core leadership may not be directly operating from Afghanistan, they maintain connections with regional affiliates like IS-KP.
Haqqani Network, designated by the US and other countries as a terrorist organization, is a powerful insurgent group with ties to the Taliban, known for attacks using suicide bombers and kidnappings.
Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which Pakistan designates as a terrorist organization, operates primarily in Pakistan but has carried out attacks in Afghanistan.
Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), designated by the UN, US, and other countries as a terrorist organization, is a Pakistan-based militant group with a history of operating in Afghanistan.
Afghanistan and the Taliban are a story intricately woven with historical narratives, contested interpretations of Islamic law, evolving political realities, and the aspirations of a diverse population.
While the Taliban may have established de facto control over much of Afghanistan, their claim to legitimacy remains fragile, constantly tested by internal opposition, international scepticism, and their ability to govern effectively and inclusively.
Consequences of the Taliban’s Failure
The potential consequences of the Taliban’s failure in Afghanistan are complex and uncertain, depending on the scale and nature of their failings. Here are some possibilities explored:
Internal Instability
If the Taliban fail to deliver on promises of security, economic improvement, or greater freedoms, widespread dissatisfaction could manifest in protests and even armed uprisings, especially among marginalized groups.
Discontent with the Taliban’s performance could aggravate existing divisions within the group, potentially leading to internal power struggles and even armed conflict.
Disillusionment with the Taliban could create opportunities for other armed groups, including remnants of the previous government or insurgent factions, to gain traction and challenge their control.
Regional Implications
Instability in Afghanistan could trigger a new wave of refugees fleeing violence and hardship, putting pressure on neighbouring countries and potentially destabilizing the region.
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Disillusionment with the Taliban could create opportunities for other armed groups...
As of 2023, according to UNHCR Global Focus - Afghanistan situation, over 3.2 million Afghans are internally displaced within the country, primarily due to conflict, insecurity, and natural disasters.
Children comprise 58% of the internally displaced population, highlighting the vulnerability and long-term impacts on their lives.
On the other hand, an estimated 8.2 million Afghans are currently seeking refuge in neighbouring countries, primarily Iran and Pakistan.
It makes Afghanistan the world’s third-largest refugee crisis, surpassed only by Ukraine and Syria.
Since the Taliban takeover in 2021, the number of Afghan refugees has increased by 28%, reflecting the deteriorating humanitarian situation within the country.
Increased Failure to control terrorist groups or address underlying grievances could provide fertile ground for their resurgence, posing security threats to Afghanistan and potentially beyond.
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...an estimated 8.2 million Afghans are currently seeking refuge in neighbouring countries, primarily Iran and Pakistan
A chaotic or Taliban-controlled Afghanistan could become a haven for criminal activity and drug trafficking, potentially impacting regional security dynamics.
As the world’s leading producer of opium production, Afghanistan accounts for over 80% of the world’s illicit opium production, according to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC).
In 2021, opium cultivation surged to its highest level in 20 years, exceeding 7,000 tons, as per the UNODC World Drug Report 2022.
The illicit opium economy is estimated to be worth 6.6 billion USD, representing almost half of Afghanistan’s GDP, highlighting its distorting impact on the country’s economic landscape (World Bank, 2021).
Consequently, heroin production and exports are at record levels. Over 80% of the cultivated opium is processed into heroin, creating a vast illicit market, as per the UNODC.
Afghan heroin reaches multiple continents, fuelling addiction and crime across Europe, Asia, and Africa.
The UNODC estimates that about 90% of the heroin seized across Europe originates from Afghanistan.
The global heroin trade generates billions of dollars annually, enriching criminal networks and fuelling instability in Afghanistan and beyond.
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...Afghanistan accounts for over 80% of the world’s illicit opium production
Addiction epidemic estimates suggest over 1.5 million Afghans struggle with drug addiction, creating a public health crisis and social disintegration.
International Compulsion
In the event of a dire humanitarian crisis, the international community may be compelled to increase humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan, regardless of the Taliban’s governance.
The international community could offer conditional support to the Taliban, linking any assistance to human rights, inclusivity, and counterterrorism progress.
Continued human rights violations, lack of inclusivity, or harbouring of terrorist groups could lead to further isolation of the Taliban government by the international community.
Despite the challenges, international scrutiny and advocacy remain crucial in holding the Taliban accountable and pushing for improvements in the human rights situation.
Continued attention to these violations is essential to ensure the safety and well-being of all Afghans, particularly vulnerable groups.
The future of Afghanistan under the Taliban remains uncertain, and unforeseen events could dramatically alter the course of events.
For now, the granting legitimacy of the Taliban remains questionable, and the future of Afghans is dreadful.
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