AUGUST 2024 

In a recent report on 16th August 2024, the newspaper highlighted the docking of the Indian naval vessel INS Mumbai in Colombo, Sri Lanka. 

What made this event noteworthy was that, concurrently, three larger Chinese naval vessels were also making a port visit in Colombo.

The Indian naval contingent consisted of 450 sailors, whereas the Chinese deployment included around 1,500 personnel—roughly three and a half times the size of India’s presence. 

On Thursday, 29th August, Sri Lankan naval ships are scheduled to engage in bilateral naval exercises with China and India simultaneously. 

This development is significant in light of recent geopolitical shifts in the Indian subcontinent. 

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There is growing concern that India is strategically encircled by China’s assertive maritime diplomacy and expanding economic and military clout.

The discussion now turns to how China has strategically encapsulated India through its economic statecraft and financial leverage. 

While China’s hard power has not yet manifested in the region, it seems only a matter of time before its military presence becomes highly influential. 

• भारत बनाम चीन:   क्या चीन भारत को मात दे रहा है? 

Many Indians may be reluctant to acknowledge this, but India’s foreign policy and neighbourhood defence strategies appear to be underperforming and increasingly ineffective.

Examining Pakistan to the west, Bangladesh to the east, and Sri Lanka and the Maldives to the south reveals a troubling picture. 

Pakistan, a long-standing adversary, has received significant economic and military support from China. 

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There is growing concern that India is strategically encircled by China’s assertive maritime diplomacy...

Although this alliance is not new, the scale of China’s military cooperation with Pakistan’s Navy is now such that it poses a serious challenge to India’s naval dominance.

By 2028-2029, Pakistan is projected to acquire eight Yuan-class diesel-electric submarines. 

When combined with its multi-role frigates, Pakistan’s naval fleet will be comparable in size and capability to India’s Western Naval Command. 

This growing military partnership between Pakistan and China is also bolstered by the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship project of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). 

This corridor extends from northern Pakistan to the southern coast, significantly increasing China’s regional influence.

China’s footprint in the Indian Ocean region continues to grow, driven by strategic infrastructure investments.

Its economic diplomacy has outflanked India, with China constructing ports, bridges, and highways in neighbouring countries like Bangladesh, Nepal, and Sri Lanka. 

Bangladesh, in particular, has been in the news due to the waning influence of the Indian government in Dhaka and a rise in anti-India sentiment. 

The departure of Sheikh Hasina from power could further weaken India’s position, with the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) already calling for the annulment of key bilateral agreements with India.

China, meanwhile, has emerged as an indispensable partner for Bangladesh. 

Bilateral trade between the two countries has reached nearly $18 billion, and China has committed to large-scale infrastructure projects under its BRI, including the Padma Bridge, Pyra Power Plant, and others. 

At the same time, India’s domestic policies, such as the National Register of Citizens (NRC) and the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), have heightened anti-India sentiments in Bangladesh, complicating bilateral relations. 

• भारत बनाम चीन:   क्या चीन भारत को मात दे रहा है? 

As a result, Bangladesh is gradually slipping out of India’s strategic orbit, requiring urgent attention.

The unresolved Teesta water-sharing agreement between India and Bangladesh has long been contentious and must be addressed swiftly to restore goodwill between the two countries. 

Shifting the focus to Sri Lanka and the Maldives reveals a similar trend. Both nations are drifting away from Indian influence, with China now holding 43% of Sri Lanka’s external debt, compared to India’s 15%. 

Over the years, China has supported the expansion of Sri Lanka’s oil refinery capacity, and last year, a $4.5 billion Chinese-led refinery project was approved in the southern port. 

It marks the single most significant foreign direct investment in Sri Lanka, highlighting China’s dominance.

In contrast, despite having 23 large oil refineries, including the world’s largest, India was sidelined. 

The same holds for Sri Lanka’s container terminal development, where India’s expertise in port management could have been crucial, yet China took the lead.

Sri Lanka’s upcoming elections could further deepen strategic differences with India, especially if Anura Kumara Dissanayake, a perceived pro-China candidate, wins. 

Following Sri Lanka’s sovereign debt default in 2022, the nation has become increasingly reliant on China, pushing it further into a “debt-trap diplomacy” scenario.

The Maldives, though small with a population of around half a million, holds strategic significance.

China has also made substantial inroads here, with infrastructure projects such as a four-lane bridge connecting Malé with the international airport. 

The Maldives owes China $1.37 billion, representing 40% of its public debt—an unsustainable figure according to the World Bank.

Like Sri Lanka, the Maldives risk falling into China’s debt trap.

Last year, tensions between India and the Maldives escalated when newly appointed pro-China ministers in the Maldives made disparaging remarks about the Indian Prime Minister, leading to a “Boycott Maldives” campaign in India. 

• भारत बनाम चीन:   क्या चीन भारत को मात दे रहा है? 

The Maldivian president subsequently turned to China to boost tourism, underscoring the increasing Chinese influence in the region.

Between 2000 and 2024, China has extended loans totalling $1.3 trillion to 165 low- and middle-income countries, including many in South Asia.

It has enabled China to establish its influence over 75% of these nations. 

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Like Sri Lanka, the Maldives risk falling into China’s debt trap

In contrast, India relies on historical ties, geographic proximity, and cultural connections, which prove insufficient to counter China’s economic power.

India’s foreign policy and diplomacy have been slow and bureaucratic, falling short in countering China’s aggressive expansion. 

India can no longer depend on its historical role in the 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War or its efforts to restore democracy in the Maldives decades ago. 

India must adopt a more agile and strategic approach to compete with China and engage its neighbours.

Moreover, the gap in military capabilities between India and China is widening. 

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...India relies on historical ties, geographic proximity, and cultural connections, which prove insufficient to counter China’s economic power

China is inducting around 240 warplanes into its arsenal each year, while India struggles to induct just 22.

This disparity in defence readiness is a stark reminder of India’s challenges in maintaining its regional influence.

In conclusion, the strategic competition between China and India is intensifying.

China’s use of economic statecraft and infrastructure investments has significantly expanded its influence in South Asia, outpacing India’s more traditional diplomatic approach. 

For India to maintain its standing in the region, it must re-evaluate its foreign policy, enhance its diplomatic agility, and find ways to compete with China’s growing dominance.