Modi 3.0 Trump 2.0 China 1.0 & Battle for Atmanirbhar
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JANUARY 2025
Lessons from Global Supply Chain Failure
The COVID-19 pandemic exposed the brittle nature of global supply chains.
From shortages of semiconductors to dependency on Chinese-made medical personal protective equipment (PPE), nations learned a harsh lesson: over-reliance on foreign supply
chains can jeopardize not just economic stability but also national security.
The Suez Canal accidental blockage in 2021, by the mega container ship ‘Evergreen’, further underscored how a single disruption could cascade across the global economy, affecting
everything from automotive production to consumer electronics.
This fragility has prompted nations to rethink their strategies. Self-reliance, or Atmanirbhar, is a necessity.
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...foreign supply chains can jeopardize not just economic stability but also national security
While it is nearly impossible for any country to be entirely self-sufficient in today’s interconnected world, building resilient domestic capabilities in critical sectors—such as semiconductors, defense, and energy—has become a priority.
These efforts, however, are as much about geopolitics as they are about economics, and the interplay between these realms has reshaped global power dynamics.
China’s Atmanirbhar Playbook
China’s rise to global prominence offers a masterclass in achieving self-reliance. Beginning in 1978, Deng Xiaoping’s market reforms laid the foundation for China’s economic transformation.
Over the next four decades, China strategically invested in infrastructure, education, and research to position itself as a manufacturing powerhouse.
By 2025, this journey bore fruit: China is not only the largest global manufacturer but also a leader in advanced technologies like 5G, artificial intelligence, and renewable energy.
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...China’s control over global supply chains—particularly in rare earth metals...
Yet, China’s Atmanirbhar journey has not been without controversy. Its success has often come at the expense of other nations, particularly in the West.
Accusations of intellectual property theft, labor rights abuses, and environmental degradation are frequent criticisms.
Additionally, China’s control over global supply chains—particularly in rare earth metals—has granted it significant geopolitical leverage.
Its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has further expanded its influence in Africa, South Asia, and beyond, securing critical resources while deepening its economic ties with partner nations.
China’s Atmanirbhar strategy has also enabled it to pursue an assertive foreign policy.
From the South China Sea to the Himalayan borders, Beijing’s confidence on the world stage is a direct result of its self-reliance.
For nations like India, this poses a significant challenge: competing with a neighbor that has perfected the art of economic and technological independence.
India’s Mixed Record
India’s approach to Atmanirbhar has been more erratic. In the years following independence in 1947, India’s leaders prioritized self-sufficiency, focusing on agriculture and heavy industries.
However, by the 1990s, faced with an economic crisis, India liberalized its economy, opening its markets to foreign goods and investments.
While this move boosted growth, it also made India vulnerable to imports, particularly from China.
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... Taiwan leads the industry, but nations like the U.S., China, and India are scrambling to catch up
This vulnerability became evident when Chinese goods began flooding Indian markets, undercutting local industries.
From toys to electronics—and even traditional products like kites—Chinese imports disrupted domestic manufacturing.
The imbalance was stark: while India aimed to be self-reliant, its trade deficit with China continued to grow.
Initiatives like Make in India and Atmanirbhar Bharat have aimed to reverse this trend, but progress has been slow.
Critical sectors like defense, electronics, and semiconductors still remain heavily dependent on imports. A glaring example is India’s reliance on U.S. technology for its defense capabilities.
While India manufactures components for F-16 fighter jets, it does not own them—highlighting a gap in true self-reliance.
Trump 2.0: A New Challenge for India
Donald Trump’s return to power introduces new variables into India’s quest for Atmanirbhar. His “America First” approach is marked by protectionist policies that prioritize U.S. interests, often at the expense of global trade partners.
For India, two specific policies stand out: proposed tariffs on BRICS nations and tighter immigration rules.
The proposed 100% tariff on goods from BRICS nations, including India, could have a devastating impact on India’s export-driven industries.
The Indian IT sector, which generates over $150 billion annually, relies heavily on trade with the U.S.
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Policies like Make in India need to move beyond rhetoric ...
A tariff of this magnitude would erode India’s competitiveness, undermining its global reputation in technology and outsourcing.
Additionally, Trump’s stance on immigration—particularly his plans to end birthright citizenship—could impact thousands of Indian migrants.
Every year, nearly 85,000 Indians move to the U.S. on H1B visas. Changes to immigration policies could disrupt their futures, as well as India’s ability to leverage its diaspora as a strategic asset.
The Semiconductor Race will decide the Winner
The global race for semiconductors—critical components in everything from smartphones to fighter jets—is reshaping international power dynamics. Often called the "new oil," semiconductors will determine technological dominance in the 21st century.
Currently, Taiwan leads the industry, but nations like the U.S., China, and India are scrambling to catch up.
For India, this is both a challenge and an opportunity.
Building a domestic semiconductor industry would not only reduce reliance on imports but also position India as a key player in global technology supply chains.
However, this requires significant investments in research, infrastructure, and talent—areas where India currently lags behind.
Lessons for India
India’s geopolitical strategy is at a crossroads. Its relationships with the U.S. and China are marked by both collaboration and competition.
The Galwan Valley clashes with China and the transactional diplomacy of leaders like Trump have highlighted a stark reality: India cannot rely solely on external alliances.
To truly achieve Atmanirbhar, India must address its internal challenges.
The unity in diversity is a threat and taking too much of India’s productive time and energy.
The national narrative needs to be redefined from dangers of Mughal past to prospects of future. Political polarization, bureaucratic inefficiency, and gaps in education and innovation must be tackled head-on.
Policies like Make in India need to move beyond rhetoric and deliver measurable results.
At the same time, India must diversify its economic partnerships, reducing its reliance on any single nation—whether it’s the U.S. or China.
The Road Ahead for Global Dominance
The battle for Atmanirbhar is more than just an economic strategy—it is a fight for survival in a volatile world.
As Trump 2.0 reshapes global dynamics, India must navigate its path carefully, leveraging its strengths while preparing for external pressures.
The stakes are high. Self-reliance is no longer an option; it is a necessity.
For India to secure its place in the shifting sands of global power, it must embrace its potential, address its vulnerabilities, and commit to a long-term vision.
Atmanirbhar Bharat is not just a slogan—it is the key to India’s future in a multipolar world.
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