DEECMBER 2022

War in Ukraine – 

Long-term geopolitics, even in a multipolar world, will cause disruptions. Ukraine’s intention to join NATO and expansion of NATO has changed balances in the region. 

Moreover, it has altered geopolitics for a long time to come. Learning is that simple.

• 2022 से सबक़

Smaller countries, under the influence of superpowers, will be battlegrounds for the superpowers. Whether it was Korea in the 50s, Vietnam in the 60s east Europe in the 80s cold war or Ukraine now, the battle pitches are always the weaker countries.

“

... the battle pitches are always the weaker countries.

In 2023, the leaders and the population must be careful not to get carried away and get sucked into the rhetoric of nationalism. Self-interest is the best foreign policy.

• Chancing with WW3 - NATO & Russia

• Bottled Water - Sinking Earth  

• Learning from Russia-Ukraine War 

Climate Change – 

Once a theory discarded by the high and mighty, is now a reality. There was less evidence then, but 2022 has boldly demonstrated. It is affecting one and all. 

2022 has seen groundbreaking temperatures, wildfires, devastating floods, and unpredictable weather are signs of an emergency. If the world learns to accept the fact, it must act immediately.

The actions to slow climate change and reverse the impact, the onus lies on all of us.

Monarchy and Democracy – 

Britain has shown that Monarchy is more stable than its democracy. 2022 saw the faces of 3 prime ministers and catastrophic anti-people policy making by the democratic governments. The consequences of which will be felt in 2023 and years to come.

On the other hand, the transfer of power from one monarch to the heir was as smooth as a ride on a golden chariot. It was seamless. This time it was the Monarchy that scored more than the democracy.

Social Media –

It is there to stay, unregulated and toxic. While continuing to influence our modern-day lives, it is omnipresent. It has entered our psychology and continues to affect the attention span of homo sapiens. 

Besides the challenges in society, the new era of connected digital devices also has to deal with social media intrusion.

Top it up with the Artificial Intelligence (AI) algorithm and profiling using data analytics; it is a dangerous tool for technologists. 

But, unfortunately, it has become a necessary evil, invisible and breathing through our lives every moment. 2023 will see evidence of AI’s independent thinking and making decisions on our behalf.

• 2022 से सबक़

China – 

Undisputed king of global interdependence! If China sneezes, the world gets shivers. The dependence is growing, and the Chinese are unavoidable. 

• Is Advertisement Creating Fake World?  

• China - The New Epicentre 

• Fast Fashion - Dying Planet 

The invincibility is already hitting dangerous levels. It has caused headaches to policymakers and strategists, and 2023 will pose further challenges.

There are no bold and visible steps on the part of developed economies or the lesser ones to reduce their dependencies on China. 

Covid or Russian-Ukraine war, tension over Taiwan in the South China sea or at the Sino-Indian borders in the coldness of the Himalayas, the role of China in geopolitics is that of domination and constant presence. The remaining part of the world is only reacting.

In 2023, nations across the board should start to demonstrate assertiveness to mitigate shivers due to china.

It is a tricky proposition and requires a  brave structural shift in policy making. It would entail risking trade and shortages, which the population may not like to undertake. 

It would require unpopular measures and risk election defeats. Today, not many world leaders have the guts to take these steps. 

The challenge is to overcome the Chinese entrenchment in our economy.

China has dug their heels firmly into the fundamentals of the nation’s economy like financials, investments, manufacturing, supply chain, technology and the strength of economies of scale.

“

Whether or not, it can be termed as silent Chinese colonialism, it is high time to accept this fact

2023 and beyond, even in a multipolar world, China will continue to have a pole position.

The world learnt in 2022 and should learn to live with this status for a long time. Whether it can be termed as silent Chinese colonialism, it is high time to accept this fact.

• 2022 से सबक़

Interconnectedness is the King!

War in Ukraine has established that “interconnectedness” reigns supreme. However, a strong economy is on paper; if the interconnectedness fails, the strongest nations are brought to their knees. 

Food, oil, gas, energy, raw material and, most importantly, global peace are all interdependent. Even the warring parties, like Russia and Ukraine, have an economic agreement to let Ukrainian wheat be exported through Russian waters in the Black Sea. 

• 2022 से सबक़

The port of Odessa, now under Russian control, ships Ukrainian goods to the world. Europe continues to import Russian oil and gas while supplying defence materials, training and finances to Ukraine.

“

Even enemies and enemies of enemies depend on each other

The politics of 2023 and beyond will continue to be dominated by interdependence and interconnectedness.

Those policymakers and business strategists, who can master the interconnectedness, and navigate the tricky waters of interdependence, will tame the king.