Learning from Russia-Ukraine War
It is the first warlike confrontation between equals and the powerful in modern times. However, like Iraq War-1, Iraq War-2, Afghanistan, Libya, etc., mostly one-sided and unequal wars have been fought by NATO or Russia.
Hence this is the best-case scenario to take cognizance of the actual world order.
World is multipolar
Many emotions and equations are at play, like regionalism, old friendships, historical events, common language, liberalism, etc., deciding the realignment in this war.
These relationships were either latent or unacknowledged. Many countries which seemed to be an ally of the West are now standing neutral.
The stance of China is vocally unspecified, staying neutral at the U.N. though softly favouring Russia in kind. India is continuing to buy Russian oil and defence equipment against the wishes of the West and is also sending humanitarian supplies to Ukraine.
Saudi Arabia, too, is playing neutral when its entire oil industry runs on a West - Saudi relationship called Saudi-Aramco.
The U.S. and Israeli relationship are not the same as it seemed. Turkey and Israel are intensely engaged in mediating between Ukraine and Russia. It contradicts the approach to peace that the U.S. and the European Union are trying to pursue.
Turkey, a NATO ally, is also a buyer of Russian defence equipment. Therefore, its alliance on the ground is not strictly the same as the NATO agreement text would expect.
All alignments and alliances during peacetime stand redefined in this time of crisis. So, all countries are acting in their self-interest.
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... so, all countries are acting in their self-interest.
Russia is a military superpower, though it is not an economically wealthy nation. Still, it can wield power across the continents, and support friendly nations.
Similar situations with their neighbours, like Russia is facing, are now guiding many other countries for future action.
Like, China’s tussle with Taiwan, which is supposed to be a bilateral issue, instead often attracts interventions and protests from the West. So China’s silence on Ukraine means something more about Taiwan.
India’s issue with Pakistan over Kashmir stands in a similar situation. Until recently, Pakistan was a base and ally for NATO activities.
It was good enough to provide moral and unsaid support to Pakistan’s role in Kashmir. However, the Ukraine war gives India another outlook, and its abstention means more about things to happen in Kashmir.
NATO is the front end of U.S. military policies
Though NATO seems to be an alliance of homogenously principled nations, there are deep divisions within NATO also. It is not a united front, as its principal partners have a significant difference in its policies against Russia.
U.S. president calls Putin a “war criminal” and “butcher”, but other alliance members diplomatically continue to persuade Russia to a peaceful resolution.
Many significant countries in the alliance continue to be trading with Russia. The U.S. and the U.K. are on different lines compared to their E.U. and NATO partners.
NATO and European Union were supposed to be two different entities. As the war in Ukraine progresses, the line segregating NATO and the European Union is blurring. This merging is a dangerous situation and can influence the region’s peace.
European Union is supposed to be a socio-economic union for the countries of Europe. The sole purpose was to ease the economic activities and remove the barriers to trade while upholding the human rights and quality of life among its member nations.
Instead of resisting sanctions on Russia and calming the situation, the European Union is facilitating NATO’s intention for its expansion.
It is making the situation complex. Six countries like Austria, Cyprus, Finland, Ireland, Malta, and Sweden in the European Union are not members of NATO. Of these, Finland has a direct border with Russia.
Hence, their position with Russia is now coming under strain and may unnecessarily get dragged into the conflict.
The U.S. and the NATO alliances do not have a strategy to deal with their equals. The U.S. and its allies have shown their strength to weak nations. But in this case, they have been unable to help Ukraine much.
The West’s soft power, like sanctions and restrictions, has not deterred Russia from its “military operation”, and Ukraine continues to be a warzone. Consequently, Ukrainians suffer, are displaced, killed, and spend life as refugees.
No one wants war except the businesses engaged in the war industry
Usually, the wars also showcase the latest defence technologies available for the world to see. For example, during the Iraq war - 1, the world witnessed an anti-scud missile system which in future became the Iron Dome for Israel.
NATO is also marketing it to countries like India under the Ballistic Missile Defence program (BMD). Similarly, the world also saw the pin-hole accuracy of Tomahawk cruise missiles in action during the 1991 Gulf War. The same is expected from the Russia Ukraine war, too.
But, so far, it has not turned out to be a high-tech war, except for those twenty “Bayraktar TB2”, the Turkish drones used by the Ukrainian army. Instead, overall, the war has become classical 20th-century warfare with tanks and guns.
Hence, the war industry is finding it challenging to demonstrate any high-end defence technology that can be marketed to other countries.
It seems an opportunity lost for many in war business.
Drones are the new feature in this war. For the Ukrainian army, the Turkish drones are playing a crucial role in its defence against the invading army of Russia.
The war in Ukraine has established that drone technology is already a piece of standard defence equipment. Soon the likes of this Turkish company will flourish by supplying cheaper drones to many others across the world.
Paradoxically, those drones supplied to Ukraine by a private company are Turkish, and Turkey has bought the top of the range S-400 missiles from Russia. So in effect, Turkey is doing business from both sides of the warring parties.
The globalized economy and the interconnected world have been severely affected when it comes to superpowers like Russia, Europe and the USA in hot waters.
With the sanctions and restrictions, both sides of the warring parties face severe disruption in the food and household essentials supply chain. In addition, the prices of goods have gone up due to disruption in the supply chain and oil and gas.
Ironically, Ukrainian refugees must live to see these profits and thriving businesses while enduring the consequences of death, destruction and devastation of war.
Oil and gas continue to be the most critical resource in today’s world
Even though a good portion of renewable energy contributes to the supply, it will continue to be an essential resource and the defining factor in future geopolitics.
If a country has to be self-sufficient, it shouldn’t rely on the oil and gas producing countries; instead, it must hurry to get the renewable energy infrastructure as soon as possible. While the humanitarian crisis persists due to the Ukraine war, some countries are profiting from billions.
Due to the oil and gas shock, countries like Saudi Arabia and Norway are increasing their production while crude prices are peaking.
Norway will be drilling forty new wells to meet the demand, which is expected to continue until this decade. It is an ideal condition for maximizing their profits; the revenue may soon touch a trillion dollars.
Today, the oil and gas shock is reminiscent of all crises worldwide. Therefore, the problem must be mitigated. Renewable energy is the answer that will bring about stability to global peace. It will redefine the power structure in this multipolar world.
Too much soft power is in the hands of the West
The targeted sanctions have shown that it can take only a few days to disrupt adversaries’ billions of dollars in businesses. The SWIFT system, which resides in the West, is used effectively and promptly by the U.S. and its allies.
Also, the gold reserves of a hostile country can be off-limit if required. Carving out the Russian banking system from the European system is already in progress, and the exposure stands at €90 billion.
Never give away strategic assets to potential adversaries
Europe made a blunder. They were importing Russian gas, and countries like Poland and Germany now stand on the verge of getting crippled.
The knock-on effect of risk on german and polish manufacturing, on the rest of Europe, is severe. But this situation did not reach in one day. Instead of getting gas supplies from their friendlier neighbour like Norway, Germany, Poland, and others have chosen Russia.
The same is the case with Russian wheat and coal. Similarly, Ukraine gave away its nuclear capabilities to buy peace with Russia. Today, it is popping out to be the most significant handicap.
Self-sufficiency, self-reliance and self-interest are the keys to national security. Europe is on the brink of collapse. Trade and business do not create friendships; they are just an exchange of goods and monies. If Europe assumed that business stakes will make an adversary a friend, for now, they are proving themselves wrong.
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No one wants war except the businesses engaged in the war industry
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