It is going to be long war followed by serious consequences for the entire world. We have not seen such kind of situation in the modern history. New alliances are going to be formed, and the world is going to be more polarised than ever before.

During the Cold War we saw two blocs, the West, consisting of liberal democracies and the communist Soviet Union. The entire global economics, military strategies, geopolitics, travel and vacations, education and other socio-economic activities were aligned to these two blocs. It was 20th century then.

• यूक्रेन युद्ध के परिणाम 

In the 21st century we'll see a similar realignment of the activities, and this time it is going to be Russia and the West, fighting out each other for the supremacy.

Already we are seeing reconfiguration of military, energy supply and economic alliances forming on both sides. The EU is now seeking the gas supply from the United States, while continuing to strengthening the NATO military alliances.

 Russia is also looking towards large energy consuming countries like China and India, to sell their oil and gas. These alliances will further expand into regions and other countries. Finally, how the polarized trade partnership and supply chains will emerge, only time will disclose. 

For now, the energy prices have started to peak and will continue to do so for some time to come.

The economics in the globalized world and the current war cannot be separated. Ukraine and Russia being the largest producers of grains, exports wheat to Europe, Middle East and Africa. 

With the current sanctions and disruptions, the price of food is going to rise dramatically, and the consequence of the war is going to be felt in the kitchens, even of those countries which are not remotely connected to the war.

• यूक्रेन युद्ध के परिणाम 

The Ukraine crisis is more serious than the cold-war era. Militarily, Europe is seeing a heavier presence of NATO and its hardware, which well remains so for a very long time to come. 

• Chancing with WW3 - NATO & Russia 

• Is Ukraine War Ending Soon? 

• Ukraine - What Would Gandhi Do? 

After the Ukraine war is over, probably we'll see Russian presence in highly fortified areas of Donbass and Crimea. On many borders of countries like Estonia, Lithuania, Poland, and Ukraine, there is going to be tension between forces seeing eyeball to eyeball. 

We will also see many attempts to deescalate the border tensions, but the first positive results will be seen only after many years from today. 

“

The economics in the globalized world and the current war cannot be separated.

Based on the current situation, all countries across the world will increase their defence spending too. It is now understood that self-defence is the best defence. Another consequence of this war he is going to be seen in the proliferation of nuclear arms. 

By now the leaders have realised that power of a nation comes by the possession of a nuclear warhead. Economics and the money power comes later. 

Only if Ukraine was a nuclear state, probably Russia would not have invaded. Getting nuclear arms and using it as deterrent is going to be next line of strategy for many countries to follow. 

• Learning from Russia-Ukraine War 

History have also shown that two nuclear states have not gone to war in the same way as Russia and Ukraine did. Consequently, the world is going to be more dangerous place to live with more nations pursuing nuclear defence option in near future.

Considering the response of the West sanctions, and how Russia realigns its economy and businesses, China is going to rethink about its strategies in Taiwan and South China Sea. These flashpoints have been here in the geopolitics for much longer than expected. 

But there are counterbalances in the China-Taiwan stand-off, China trades and depends largely on the economics of the US and the West. Any disturbance due to Russia type sanctions will jeopardise the economy of China. 

Not that the West will remain unaffected, but the stakes of Chinese economy are higher in keeping peace, with the US and the West. Based on the learnings from the Ukraine war, how China and other countries manage the South China Sea crisis, remains to be carefully observed.

• यूक्रेन युद्ध के परिणाम 

The West also understands that pushing Russia too hard would collate Russia more with China, raising that hostile Iron Curtain again. This would put smaller countries of the EU like Romania, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania into risk.

“

The West also understands that pushing Russia too hard would collate Russia more with China, raising that hostile Iron Curtain again.

Europe Union, all this while have been promoting peace and has been an icon for a peaceful society. They would not like to live under a constant threat off hostilities at the Russian borders. Therefore, Europe would like to calm down the situation with Russia as soon as possible.

Prior to the Ukrainian war, China was considered to be more threatening to the global peace than Russia. If the Ukrainian war is not handled properly, concluding without peace in Ukraine, EU and the US will have to then handle dual threats from China and Russia. Most likely, they don’t have appetite for this situation. 

The reality is that the West needs Russia to handle Iran and Syria troubles. Any imbalances in this equation will potentially shake the fragile situation in Israel and Palestine. Hence Israel would like to have a softer relationship with Russia even though it may mean to move slightly away from the US.

The other battlefront could be Afghanistan. Currently it is influenced by the Chinese and Russian interventions. If Russia and China gets distracted to hostilities with EU and the US, it will leave Afghanistan and the Taliban government unattended. 

Undoubtedly, it will convert Afghanistan again into an unregulated breeding ground for global terrorism. Hence, Afghanistan is another chapter to watch, that will be defining the geopolitics, in times to come.

We are all witness two the growing refugee crisis due to war in Syria and Middle East. Millions have walked through the rough terrains, crossed the Mediterranean in those flimsy rubber dinghies, often losing lives while escaping war and famine, back home in Syria, Middle East and Africa. 

Now we are witness to millions fleeing their homes from Ukraine. Within thirty days of war, already half of the children in Ukraine are homeless. 

• यूक्रेन युद्ध के परिणाम 

These refugee calamities have suddenly overwhelmed the Europe and the humanitarian distress is going to last longer than the war. The humanitarian crisis is going to get worse as Ukrainian men, 18- to 60-year-old, have stayed back to fight the Russians. 

The demography of Ukrainians is going to drastically change in coming days with half parents and orphans.

Wars always have terrible consequences. But if the war is widespread involving plenty of superpowers, the globalized effect will be disastrous. A bloody chapter has already been added to the history of Europe. 

World trade, food prices, energy prices, humanitarian crisis, disruption to the rhythm of life across the countries, is going to be felt for at least a decade to come. 

“

The animosity among nations and people will last generations and will only take a saint to heal the wounds.