09 FEBRUARY 2023

No one is talking about restoring peace; hence there is no end. On the contrary, the West is gearing up with more support for the war.

Germany is now sending Leopard-2 battle tanks to Ukraine. Though the number is small, just 14, symbolically, it is a consequential step. It has also agreed to dilute the license agreement for re-exporting the Leopard-2 tank. 

Hence, countries like Poland, Finland and Portugal will be able to send more battle tanks to Ukraine.

Spring is the anticipated timeline for the arms build-up. 

As a gesture of support and unity, the US sends its Main Battle Tank, ABRAMS, to Ukraine. These are the new lines drawn in the war.

• क्या यूक्रेन युद्ध जल्द ही समाप्त हो रहा है? 

Ukraine is expecting the numbers to be in 3 digits. It is the number which western strategists assume will turn the tide on Russia. But, if Ukraine finds success, will it just defend itself or reclaim its lost territory of the Donbas region?

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 Spring is the anticipated timeline for the arms build-up.

These tanks will be delivered in 3 -4 months. It means that Western planners and war strategists are not seeing an end to war for quite some time. Further, it will complicate matters as Russia gets a window of a couple of months to escalate the war.

Battle tanks are not like cars with keys, ready to go. They would require logistics and training support, which is challenging to set up quickly. Moreover, these facilities cannot be in Ukrainian territory. They must be in Poland or elsewhere, dragging those countries into the war.

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Battle tanks are not like cars with keys, ready to go.

President Zelensky, meanwhile, is on a tour of Europe, meeting the British Prime Minister, the French president and the German Chancellor. He is asking for fighter jets, calling them “wings for freedom”.

• Ukraine - What Would Gandhi Do? 

• Learning from Russia-Ukraine War 

• Consequences of Ukraine War 

• NATO & Article 5 

It is already a shadow war with NATO, and these steps will further put legitimacy on Russian retaliation against Ukraine and supporting countries. Moreover, it may expand the war into Europe.

• क्या यूक्रेन युद्ध जल्द ही समाप्त हो रहा है? 

On the other side, Russia, too, is said to be amassing a large force. They are gearing up for the spring offence and are showing no signs of backing down. 

Last year has been bad for them with losses and tactical retreats. With pressure from within, Putin has no choice but to display his might. It is crucial for his political survival.

The West’s outlook on arming Ukraine assumes that succeeding on the battlefield will prevail on the negotiating table. But it also means that Russia too will innovate their war strategy. Like they did after the disastrous tanks-led invasion in Luhansk and Donbas regions. 

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... succeeding on the battlefield will prevail on the negotiating table.

With changed tactics, they are now using missiles to attack and disrupt the critical infrastructures across Ukraine. There are no traditional frontlines now.

• क्या यूक्रेन युद्ध जल्द ही समाप्त हो रहा है? 

With these escalations, one cannot imagine Zelensky and Putin sitting down to talk about peace. So someone has to give way to the negotiating table, which is the weaker one. Hence, this war will find the weaker of the two – the West-supported Ukraine or Russia. Unfortunately, for now, there is none.

Many fears, both in the West and inside Ukraine, that supplying arms to Ukraine will lead to a nuclear strike by Russia. It will also lead to an arms race on the battlefield. Ukraine and Russia will be hot spots for acquiring the best arms globally.

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... that supplying arms to Ukraine will lead to a nuclear strike by Russia.

With the energy market in Europe and around the world stabilizing, there is no public outcry for fuel inflation. Instead, the supply and prices have been manipulated to balance appropriate availability and profit for energy companies. 

The sanctioned price cap of $60 on Russian oil keeps all sides functional and satisfied.

The food shortages have been managed well by the West. Either the supply chain has been restored, or the public has learnt to live with the new normal.

• क्या यूक्रेन युद्ध जल्द ही समाप्त हो रहा है? 

In earlier conflicts, we have seen that warring parties have indulged in terrorism, espionage, the use of chemical weapons and the threat of nuclear war.

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The word “Peace” is still unheard of.

It is nearly a year since the war started, and still, no one is talking about reconciliatory talks. The word “Peace” is still unheard of.

These are indicators that war is not ending soon.